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经纪行业投资要点

与征求意见稿相比,显然经纪人分类管理安排:7月5日,中国证监会发布《证券公司股权管理规定》及配套规定,并重启国内证券公司的设立。该官方草案与2018年3月草案之间的主要区别在于:

1)明确地将经纪人分为两类。第一类是专业证券公司(从事传统证券业务,如经纪业务,投资银行业务,资产管理业,自营业务等);第二类是综合性证券公司(具有重要的商业参与)。多种业务之间的杠杆性和交叉风险,如股票期权做市,场外交易衍生品,股票质押回购等;

2)降低综合证券公司控股股东/主要股东的资产规模和营业收入:将综合性证券公司控股股东的资产规模要求调整为“总资产不低于500亿元”,净资产不低。 “200亿元”,删除控股股东“过去三年主营业务累计收入不低于1000亿元”,主要股东“近三年累计收入不低于50亿元“;

3)减少实际控制证券公司的个别非金融公司的股权比例:股权比例从评论草案的1/3放宽至50%;

4)澄清新旧未被削减:官方草案明确规定新成立的经纪,股票经纪,国内经纪或合资经纪是否适用;

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对于五年过渡期,逾期付款尚未达到要求,需要转变为专业证券公司(即不能从事股票质押等杠杆基金)。

经纪股东的进入壁垒仍然很高。预计该行业的马太效应将会加剧,并购的趋势将是显而易见的:

我们认为,尽管官方草案与准备草案相比已放宽了进入壁垒,但与之前相比,经纪股东的进入壁垒仍然显着改善,这对私人经纪人产生了影响:

1) Require the controlling shareholder's total assets and net assets to be no less than 50 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively and “the core main business is outstanding, and the main business has continued to make profits for the last 5 years”. At present, only 170 of the A-share listed companies meet the requirements and Basically, the central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are the main ones. There are less than 30 civil enterprises that meet the requirements. The policy intention of regulating private brokers by promoting the entry threshold is significant;

2) For the newly established brokers, although the approval of the establishment of domestic brokerages has been restarted, the number of privately-held securities brokers is expected to remain limited in the future due to the high entry barriers for brokerage shareholders (the former private enterprises have acquired financial licenses through various means). And the behavior of creating a gold control platform is regulated);

3) For stock brokers, there are not many companies that meet the regulatory requirements of privately-held securities brokers. If they are transformed into professional brokers after the transition period of five years, the limited development of leveraged funds will drive them to accelerate the creation of traditional businesses. Differentiated competitive advantages (if the business homogenization is still serious, the market will be further competitive, the profitability will further decline, the ROE level will decrease, the operating pressure will increase, or the private shareholders will be forced to transfer the shares).

In addition, the competition in the securities industry is intensifying, and the Matthew effect is expected to be strengthened. The profitability of large brokerages will continue to expand. It is expected that leading brokers are expected to open up resource integration and rely on mergers and acquisitions to break through the endogenous growth bottleneck, and industry concentration is expected to further increase.

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The new regulations tightened the supervision of shareholders of securities companies. Internet companies are basically not expected to hold securities brokers in the future. Even if Internet companies meet the requirements of total assets, net assets and profitability, the regulations stipulate that “the proportion of individual non-financial enterprises actually controlling securities companies’ equity must not exceed 50% in principle. "The acquisition of a controlling share is still subject to restrictions." The value of the technology financial platform that has obtained the license has increased.

xx对东彩证券而言,一方面,其股东距离监管要求不远(另一方面,2019年3月底上市实体东方财富总资产为638亿,净资产为183亿,持续盈利) ,东财证券业务基本上以传统零售证券为重点,特色鲜明,因此对其业务发展影响不大。

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从长远来看,在经纪商进入门槛提升后,东财证券独特的互联网遗传和零售证券模式将为其产品创造强大的护城河(包括其在流动端的领先优势(东方财富积累的高粘性用户)网络和股票市场),低佣金率和两个利率(互联网经纪人的低成本优势),更丰富的服务模式(数据终端/信息/社会投资平台等)。

表1:上市经纪商的实际控制人和属性,最大股东和持股比例进行了分类

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风险提示:1)二级市场交易量急剧下降; 2)行业的合并和重组没有像预期的那样取得进展; 3)金融监管政策收紧。